Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
