🔗 Share this article

After netting nine goals in his initial seven league matches, Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has begun the season on fire.

Even though this doesn't represent his strongest opening to a term - he scored 11 goals in his initial seven matches in 2022-23 and ten in the previous campaign - it nevertheless places him three goals ahead in the early running for this campaign's English top-flight Golden Boot.

What makes this none of his nine goals have been penalties makes it all the more impressive.

What Makes Haaland Special

Of course, injury could definitively intervene in the final top scorer outcome, but there are two key factors why Haaland is so heavily favored for the honor so quickly into the term.

Firstly, the number of goals he has already scored - and, of similar importance, the quantity and caliber of chances he is getting.

And second, the sluggish beginning his usual rivals for the award have made.

Expected Goals Analysis

A footballer's xG statistic (xG) represents how many goals a top-flight footballer has traditionally converted from the number and quality of opportunities he's received.

This doesn't represent a figure arbitrarily chosen by data analysts, but by historical Premier League data.

Upon reviewing at footballers' expected goals in the English top division so far this campaign from normal play, the Scandinavian attacker is receiving significantly more excellent scoring situations to score than every other footballer.

Actually, even if Haaland wasn't superior at converting opportunities than anyone else in the league, he would still have scored over double the amount goals as the remainder of the league.

Opportunity Analysis

That is demonstrated by breaking down the total and standard of chances that footballers have received in the Premier League so far.

Haaland has registered 29 attempts so far this season, a dozen more than all other attackers.

That is actually not that remarkable for him - he had previously registered more non-spot-kick efforts at this point in the previous two campaigns (30 in the 2023-24 season and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

However, what's exceptional even for Haaland is the standard of scoring situations he has had this season. His efforts have had an chance quality metric of 0.27 per attempt.

What that figure means is that attackers have typically netted the efforts he's registered at a rate of 27%.

Of players to take at minimum ten attempts, only Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez has had more straightforward opportunities to score on average - due to a couple of tap-ins against West Ham and Brighton.

The Norwegian's expected goals of 0.27 per shot is considerably superior than the 0.17 expected goals per attempt he had at the start of last season.

To summarize, the opportunities he has had in the current season have been notably easier to score from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the start of the previous campaign.

Historical Comparison

Opening a term so powerfully is, as mentioned above, typical for Haaland. After seven games last campaign he had scored 10 goals - a quartet more than any other player and six additional compared to Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Reds attacker who secured the scoring title with 29 goals, seven additional compared to the City forward.

In the new campaign, while Haaland has opened with incredible momentum, Salah has scored half the number goals and had fifty percent fewer opportunities (xG) than at this juncture last term.

Indeed this has been the most subdued opening to a Premier League term the Pharaohs star has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It's not merely Salah who has begun modestly either. When examining at the eleven leading goalscorers in the English top division last campaign, Haaland has netted the same number goals as the remaining ten footballers collectively so far.

Be it because of injuries - multiple prominent forwards - extended transfer dramas in one particular striker's situation or merely because their teams have struggled (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's probable competitors in the contest for the top scorer award have failed to perform so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

Although the Norwegian appears the clear favourite for the Premier League scoring title, what about the European top scorer prize that is given to the footballer scoring the most in Europe's top-five leagues?

That competition is considerably more open at this early stage because two world-class strikers have similarly opened in great form, with 11 and nine goals respectively.

The reality Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the top chance quality metric of the three players without yet taking any penalties positions him as the likely winner.

Yet given that the English and French stars are some of the most excellent goal-scorers in continental soccer in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the race is certainly on.